Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Gains Ground

Front month TTF is gaining ground after falling to the lowest level since early August yesterday as the ongoing cold weather is boosting demand for heating, while rising tensions in the Middle East and LNG vessel diversions are adding to the upside. Forecasts for milder weather from next week and high storage levels are limiting gains.

• TTF FEB 24 up 2.5% at 28.41€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.7% at 28.79€/MWh
• Cold temperatures in NW Europe this week are expected to turn to above normal from around Jan 22 and then remain above until the end of the month.
• German natural gas consumption last week rose 11.9% above the 2018-2021 average, driven by increased heating demand as temperatures fell well below the seasonal norm, Bnetza data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated back up to 359.8mcm/d and just below the record level from mid December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 77.99% full on Jan 16 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 66.6% with near normal net withdrawal rates this week.
• Total European LNG sendout was at 421mcm/d on Jan 16 compared to an average of 395mcm/d so far in January according to Bloomberg.
• The recent freeze in the US has disrupted scheduled LNG exports out of the US, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
• Asian LNG demand is projected to increase by 5% to 12m mt in 2024, following the 2% growth in 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie.
• China’s combined pipeline gas and LNG imports in November were up 23% on the month to a record 16.449 mcm, according to the nations’ customs service., cited by Interfax.