Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Losing Ground

TTF front month has continued to lose ground today, driven by an easing of supply risk sentiment and with a slight recovery in Norwegian supplies on the day.

• TTF SEP 24 down 1.6% at 37.35€/MWh
• The premium due to the risk of an early halt to Ukraine gas transit flows has eased with no changes in physical flows so far but Ukrainian forces continue to advance into Russia's Kursk.
• Gas transit flows via Sudzha are still nominated near normal at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• The upcoming Norwegian seasonal maintenance remains supportive with Gassco showing capacity reductions of 18mcm/d today rising to around 43mcm/d on Aug 24 and a peak of nearly 189mcm/d on Sept. 2. Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 327.7mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are holding at of just above normal in the coming week but are forecast to warm further above normal into the end of the month and into the start of September.
• European gas stores have reached the EU pre-winter target at 90.02% full on Aug 19 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 82.0%.
• The return of France's Montoir LNG terminal from maintenance has been delayed once again until Friday.
• Two LNG vessels appear to be circling off Europe, but it is too early to call them a winter storage play according to ICIS.