Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Lowest Since Israel-Hamas War

TTF front month is continuing the decline which began Nov. 24 to drive it to the lowest since Oct. 6, prior to the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Muted demand, good near-term supply and high storage are helping to ease any winter supply risk concerns.

• TTF DEC 23 down -3.4% at 41.3€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.3% at 42.39€/MWh
• GAS POSITIONING - ICE TTF positions of Commercial Undertaking, eg for energy companies are holding relatively steady after rising to the highest since Dec 2022 last week.
• European gas prices are demonstrating market confidence of comfortably getting through the winter, which should keep prices steady through the colder months, according to Bloomberg.
• European gas storage inventories are currently at 97.0%, compared to the five-year average of 73.9%.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly down on the day at 341.8mcm/d amid corrective maintenance at Aasta Hansteen today but with uncertain duration taking 4mcm/d offline, while a compressor failure at Troll takes 9mcm/d offline.
• European LNG sendout was back up again to 470.5mcm/d on Nov 27 compared to an average of 404mcm/d so far in November and 325mcm/d seen in October.
• LNG inventories held by Japanese utilities fell by 6.43% on the week to 2.33mn tons as of 26 November according to trade ministry data.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024 according to BNEF.
• Spain has imported 4.5mn tons of Russian LNG so far in 2023, compared with 3.7mn tons for the entire year of 2022 and 2.4mn tons for the whole of 2021, Bloomberg ship-tracking data showed.