Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF on Track for Weekly Decline

TTF front month is trading higher today but still on track for a net weekly decline with upside pressure after Israel stated it had encircled the Gaza Strip's largest city offsetting ongoing warm weather across Europe. Natural gas is flowing from Israel to Egypt again albeit at reduced rates. The resumption in Egyptian LNG exports seems unlikely in the short-term as the country just imported a partial LNG cargo amid ongoing gas shortages.

• TTF DEC 23 up 2.1% at 49.61€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.3% at 51.62€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday at 278k.
• Israel’s natural gas exports to Egypt have resumed but are still reduced, an official in Egypt's petroleum ministry said on Thursday. Argus Media reported on Tuesday flows had resumed. Egypt’s natural gas imports from Israel are currently at 250mcf/d, compared with 800mcf/d normally, a person with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg.
• The latest weather forecast is showing temperatures holding just above or at normal throughout the two week outlook.
• European gas demand rose in October around 1%, the first year on year increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, IEA Gas Analyst Greg Molnar said in a post on LinkedIn.
• Austrian natural gas consumption during April-September fell by 7.3% on the year, E-Control data showed. September gas demand stood at 3.86TWh, down by 1.06TWh, or 21.6%, from last year’s levels.
• German natural gas output for power generation in October rose by 66.6% on the year, driven by slightly lower renewables output this year and the halt to nuclear-fired generation as of April this year, Fraunhofer ISE data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 312mcm/d with an unplanned outage at SEGAL fields due to process problems at Gjøa field currently expected until 13 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are still building slightly and up to 99.41% full on 1 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.2%.
• Total European LNG sendout was holding steady at 377mcm/d on 1 Nov after rising from around 350mcm/d early this week.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 up 1.6% at 17.86$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 2.36$/mmbtu
• The latest US sanctions on Russian LNG could threaten Japan’s drive for energy security with the measures directly targeted at a major entity involved in the development the Russia Arctic LNG 2 project according to Bloomberg.