Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Pulls Back

TTF front month is easing back today, falling to the lowest level since 12 October, weighed on by bearish near-term fundamentals with mild weather and near-full gas storage, while the upside risks have eased with the current containment of the Middle East conflict.

• TTF DEC 23 down -4.4% at 45.95€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -4% at 48.16€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were on Friday at 241k.
• The latest weather forecast is suggesting mild weather conditions are expected to linger across much of Europe this week with little sign of consistent below normal temperatures in the two week outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 332.3mcm/d after reaching the highest since early August at 334.3mcm/d yesterday.
• European natural gas storage levels are up to 99.55% full on 4 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1% as small injections continue despite the traditional start to the withdrawal season
• Total European LNG sendout averaged 366mcm/d in the week to 4 Nov after rising to the highest since June at 392mcm/d on 3 Nov.
• Norwegian natural gas pipeline flows and LNG shipments accounted for 29% of the European supply mix in October according to ICIS.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 down -0.7% at 17.04$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 2.1$/mmbtu
• France’s new Le Havre LNG terminal is set to receive its first cargo Monday according to ICIS.
• Russian LNG production this is year is expected at 30mn tons, compared with 32.5mn tons in 2022, according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.
• China’s Sinopec signed a new agreement with QatarEnergy to buy LNG for the duration of 27 years, both companies said.
• A record 200 mmtpa of new LNG supply is under construction amid Asia’s drive to reduce dependence on coal and as Europe looks to replace Russian gas. Depending on demand from sustained economic growth across emerging markets in Asia, the market will need another 60 mmtpa of new LNG by 2033 according to Wood Mackenzie.