Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Recovers

Front month TTF has recovered earlier losses back to positive on the day with support from colder weather at the end of the two-week forecast period. This week’s bullish trend in TTF prices was also supported by lower natural gas production in the US and the Freeport LNG outage.

• TTF APR 24 up 1.1% at 26.86€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.9% at 27.15€/MWh
• Investment funds were still holding a small net short TTF positioning last week although the short position has reduced slightly according to the latest data via Bloomberg.
• Mild weather is set to persist across Europe until 19 of February, after which temperatures are forecast to fall well below seasonal normal.
• German natural gas consumption stood at 2,984GWh/d in February, 26.6% below the 2018-2021 average, the largest monthly reduction in demand versus the average since September 2023, Bnetza data showed.
• Storage withdrawal rates increase back towards normal on Mar. 5 but total stores are still well above normal at 61.61% full according to GIE data and compared to 58.94% last year. The seasonal five year average storage level is 44.5% full.
• The start of the German natural gas inventory net injection season could be as early as mid-March in the case of mild temperatures according to INES.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today steady at 345.9mcm/d but are expected edge lower during the coming week amid planned field and processing plant outages.
• European LNG sendout remains unchanged at 383mcm/d on Mar. 5 compared to an average of 379mcm/d so far in March.
• Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is aiming to reach a final investment decision on the new Ruwais LNG project in the first half of 2024 according to Bloomberg sources.
• Exports from Africa’s five main LNG exporters – Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria – declined in February, although the region remains optimistic for its production outlook, Platts said.
• Chinese natural gas imports – including piped gas and LNG – climbed by 23.6% on the year to 22.10mn tons in January February, customs data showed, marking the highest year-to-date on record.