Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Recovers Slightly

Front month TTF is trading higher today, holding just above the lowest since May 2021. Upside to TTF prices remains limited with storage levels above the five-year range and muted demand amid forecasts for seasonally mild weather.

• TTF MAR 24 up 2% at 23.4€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.7% at 23.88€/MWh
• ICE has cut the margin requirements on European front-month TTF gas by another 31% to the lowest rate since July 2021 amid weak prices and falling volatility this winter.
• Temperatures in Europe are forecast to stay mild with unseasonably warm weather expected in the Nordic, central and eastern regions. Temperatures in NW Europe are closer to normal although remain above throughout the current two week forecast.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today almost unchanged from levels over the weekend with nominations at 345.1mcm/d.
• Below normal withdrawal rates continue to boost European gas storage up above the previous five year range at 64.08% full on Feb 24 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 47.2%.
• European LNG sendout was at 340mcm/d on Feb 24 according to Bloomberg to remain in line with the average of 345mcm/d seen so far during February.
• The Energos Power FSRU, with a regas capacity of 7.5bcm per year, has arrived at Germany’s Mukran LNG terminal on 24 February for a test operation, ship tracking data showed.
• The amount of Qatari LNG shipped on FOB terms rather than delivered has risen, according to Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi, cited by Bloomberg.
• Qatar announced a new 16mtpa LNG project before 2030, lifting the country’s annual production capacity to 142mn tons by 20230, Qatar’s energy minister Saad Al-Kaabi said on Sunday.
• Qatar’s latest announcement to further increase LNG export capacity is expected to lead to LNG oversupply, which will increase risks, especially from 2026, that global gas prices decline to supply cash costs below $4.70/mmBtu, or 15 EUR/MWh, potentially leading to the cancellation of US LNG exports, similar to 2020, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• China’s LNG import capacity could increase by a third in 2024 due to increased domestic investment in LNG infrastructure according to Oilchem.