Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Removes Gains

Front month TTF has removed earlier gains to trade lower on the day weighed on by below-norm storage withdrawals, warm weather and ample supplies. Earlier gains were driven by new US and UK strikes on Houthi targets on Monday in defense of commercial shipping.

• TTF FEB 24 down -1.5% at 26.87€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.6% at 27.95€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW Europe and central Europe are forecast to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period and into the start of February.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain strong with today nominated at 350.3mcm/d.
• Norwegian natural gas production in December further recovered to 379mcm/d, 7.7% above the forecast and up from 365mcm/d in November, NPD data showed.
• European natural gas storage is down to 74.44% full on Jan 21 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 63.3%.
• Net storage withdrawals have averaged just over 10% above normal in the week to Jan 21 with withdrawals of 7,250GWh/d compared to the previous five year average of about 6,550GWh/d. Withdrawals averaged 17% above normal so far in Jan compared to 30 below normal during Q4 2023.
• European LNG sendout is back down to 352mcm/d on Jan 21 comapred to an average of 396mcm/d so far in Jan.
• LNG prices for delivery to Europe and Asia are tracking lower and at seven-month lows in line with falling European hub prices.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that has not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 4.4% over the last week to 3.44mn tons as of 21 January according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global LNG imports last week declined by 8% to 8.6mn tons during 15-21 January, with a slightly dip in Japanese and South Asian purchases according to BNEF.
• The combined fleet and orderbook of large LNG ships (60,000+ cu m) rose to 1,000 vessel for the first time in Q4 2023 according to MSI.
• Belgium may not be able to make use of the upcoming EU law allowing member states to block imports of Russian LNG due to existing contracts, Belgium’s energy minister Tinne Van Der Straeten said.
• China’s natural gas demand during summer 2024 – April until September – is expected to increase 6.7% year on year to 194.9bcm, with most increases seen in gas burn in the transport and power sectors according to BNEF.
• Russia’s Sakhalin Energy wants to raise long term LNG contract prices for Asian buyers according to Bloomberg reports.