Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Resumes Bearish Trend

TTF has removed earlier gains to trade lower in the session driven by ample supplies and forecasts for mild weather, indicating lower heating demand. Front month TTF remains above lows seen earlier this week of 26.6€/MWh, the lowest since end July.

• TTF FEB 24 down -3.3% at 27.97€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.3% at 28.84€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period although could trend back towards normal after the first few days of February.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 9.6% above the 2018-2021 average, despite temperatures above the seasonal norm, Bnetza data showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 348.2mcm/d amid a planned outage at Karsto until Jan 26.
• European natural gas storage is down to 73.46% full on Jan 23 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 61.9% with net withdrawals below normal this week.
• European LNG sendout increased slightly up to 375mcm/d on Jan 23 but remains below levels seen in the previous couple of years at this time of year.
• QatarEnergy’s Al Khor LNG vessel is headed for Barcelona and is currently signaling to cross the Suez Canal, despite the country’s announcement to avoid the region and divert vessels if possible, Bloomberg ship-tracking showed.
• The Biden administration is set to unveil plans within days for intensifying environmental scrutiny of applications to LNG export facilities, which is unlikely to affect US and global gas balances in the next 3-4 years, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• LNG freight continue to move lower despite ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions, however, this could change due to the narrowing JKM-TTF premium, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
• The transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine is likely to continue beyond this year, when the current deal is set to expire this year, Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said.
• Russian natural gas exports are expected to increase to 108bcm in 2024 driven by planned growth in the Power of Siberia pipeline flows to China according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.