Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Retreats

TTF is trading back lower today after yesterday’s rally amid bearish short-term fundamentals with forecasts for mild weather, high storages and ample supplies. Front month TTF recouped some losses amid planned works in Norway, curtailing supplies.

• TTF MAR 24 down -2.5% at 23.4€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.1% at 23.95€/MWh
• Mild temperatures are forecast to continue in central and eastern Europe while NW Europe holds just above normal throughout the two week outlook.
• European gas storage remains above the previous five year range at 63.86% full on Feb 25 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 47.0%.
• EU net withdrawal rates fell back to 1,733TWh/d on Feb 25 from 2,998TWh/d on Feb. 23 according to GIE data.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are again relatively unchanged with nominations at 343.2mcm/d today. Supplies are curtailed by 13.9mcm/d until 29 March and by 18.89mcm/d until 11 March.
• European LNG sendout was up slightly to 365mcm/d on Feb 25 according to Bloomberg. The net import flows are above the average seen to date in February but well below the Feb 2023 average of about 440mcm/d.
• The European Commission is proposing the adoption of a Council recommendation to extend European natural gas demand saving measures of 15%, compared with the April 2017 to March 2022 levels, by one year until 2025.
• The 174,000-cbm FSRU Energos Force is expected to be deployed in Stade in mid-March following the completion of one LNG delivery and a short visit to a yard, according to Deutsche Energy Terminal via LNG Prime.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 20% over the last week to 3.57mn tons as of 25 February, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 0.7% to 7.9mn tons during 19-25 February, as a recovery in imports from China and Taiwan offset lower shipments to Japan and South Korea according to BNEF.
• Global LNG consumption is expected to rise by 50% over the next decade with signs of growth seen in emerging Asia, Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill said to Bloomberg.
• LNG diversions are curtailing LNG shipping capacity, but even disruption throughout 2024 will only result in a year-on-year reduction in global LNG supply of 5.4 mt or 1.35% according to OIES.