Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises on LNG Delays

Front month TTF is trading higher on the day supported by some delayed LNG arrivals due to Red Sea diversions. Warm weather, ample supplies and high storage levels are adding downside pressure.

• TTF FEB 24 up 2.1% at 27.79€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 1.9% at 28.85€/MWh
• Qatar has informed some European buyers it will delay and reschedule some of its LNG shipments as the diversions away from the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope cause longer travel times for tankers according to traders with knowledge of the matter, cited by Bloomberg.
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period although could trend back towards normal after the first few days of February.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are slightly lower with nominations for 344.5mcm/d today amid a planned outage at Karsto until Jan 26.
• European natural gas storage is down to 73.93% full on Jan 22 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 62.65% with net withdrawals below normal this week.
• European LNG sendout has been holding around 360mcm/d since Jan 19 and well below the levels seen in the previous couple of years at this time of year. Qatar is delaying some LNG shipments to Europe as supply is reshuffled to meet contractual obligations due to the longer journey times from avoiding the Red Sea route according to Bloomberg.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities declined by 2.73% last week to 2.49mn tons as of 21 January according to data released by the trade ministry, cited by Bloomberg.
• Japan’s LNG imports fell 8% to 66.2m mt in 2023, the lowest since 2009, according to Reuters citing Ministry of Finance Data.
• LNG consumption in India in December increased 8.9% year on year to 5.47bcm, compared to a 7.7% increase in November according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data.
• European gas trading volumes surged by around 30% in 2023 to the highest level on record, as lower margin calls reduced costs associated with trading and supported higher activity across the European trading hubs, IEA analyst Greg Molnar said.