Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides to 6 Oct Low

TTF is trading at the lowest since 6 October with warm weather helping to limit demand and after healthy supplies have coped with the recent below normal temperatures in Europe.

• TTF JAN 24 down -5% at 36.67€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -5.1% at 36.91€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast above normal throughout the coming two weeks although with a slight dip in temperatures in the middle of this week.
• European natural gas storage was down to 91.12% full on Dec 9 according to GIE data with withdrawal rates falling back below normal driven by the warmer weather in Europe. The seasonal five year average is 81.1%.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today at 347.2mcm/d compared to an average so far this month of 350mcm/d with a small outage at Dvalin.
• Algeria’s natural gas production is on track to rise 4bcm this year due to production from new fields, the Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab said, cited by Montel.
• Serbia completed the construction of the 1.8bcm interconnector to a gas pipeline in Bulgaria, as the country aims to diversify gas supplies away from Russia, the Serbian Energy Ministry said on Sunday.
• The gas market is expected to remain tight in 2024 from a supply perspective despite the easing tensions this year, with a limited safety buffer and risk of heightened volatility according to IEA Analyst Greg Molnar via LinkedIn.
• Venezuela has begun contacting energy firms over an idled offshore gas project to begin new operations according to Reuters sources. The project is near Guyana’s border and is reignited due to other land based border claim disputes.
• European LNG sendout also eased lower late last week back to 412mcm/d on Dec 8 compared to a recent high of nearly 500mcm/d on Dec 5.
• Japan’s oil and gas producer Inpex Corp and power utility JERA are looking for US energy regulator FERC to give prompt approvals for construction to begin on the Venture Global CP2 LNG project in Louisiana according to Reuters.