Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slips on Ample Supplies, Storage

Front month TTF has extended losses to the lowest since 3 January amid healthy supplies and high storage levels with below-average net withdrawals. Downward price pressure comes despite the colder weather boosting heating demand in the region this week and with supply risks due to Middle East tensions.

• TTF FEB 24 down -9% at 31.45€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -8.2% at 31.48€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain strong at 353.4mcm/d having held above 342mcm/d since the start of December.
• The Dutch government said on Monday it would turn on the “pilot light” – minimal production – at two stations in the Groningen gas field due to cold temperatures in the Netherlands, cited by Reuters.
• European LNG sendout was at 315mcm/d on Jan 6 but low compared to an average of 323mcm/d over the previous week and well below levels seen this time last year.
• Below normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe this week although could edge slightly warmer back closer to normal towards the middle of the month.
• European natural gas storage was down to 84.88% full on Jan 6 according to GIE data and remains well above the seasonal five year average of 71.9% after smaller than normal net withdrawals at the start of this year.
• Withdrawals in the week to Jan 6 averaged about 2,650GWh/d compared to the previous five-year average for the period of nearly 3,500GWh/d. Net withdrawals since the start of Nov have been about 19.5% below the five year average.
• A pipeline connected to Germany’s 3.5bcm/yr Brunsbüttel LNG terminal is likely to start up in February, as final repairs at LNG pipeline running from Brunsbüttel to Hetlingen will start in the coming days, Gasunie’s spokesman Philipp von Bergmann-Korn said.
• LNG prices are expected to remain at elevated levels in a range of $12 to $14/mmbtu this year until new supply at the end of the year according to note from Sanford C Bernstein.
• Egypt's Damietta LNG plant has resumed loadings for the first time since July 2023, according to ICIS LNG Edge.