Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Supported

TTF front month is finding support again today amid increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East while warm weather adds to cooling demand in Europe and LNG competition from Asia.

• TTF SEP 24 up 1.7% at 36.47€/MWh
• Geopolitical tensions have risen with Israel reportedly killing the political leader of Hamas in Tehran. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamanei has called for a direct attack on Israel, according to the NY Times, while Israeli PM Netanyahu has cautioned that there are “challenging days ahead”.
• Temperatures in NW Europe are still forecast above normal in the coming two weeks although with near normal over the weekend.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 339.8mcm/d with Gassco showing outages of 15.7mcm/d today including an unplanned Sleipner field outage.
• European gas storage remains on track to reach the EU 90% target in late August. Gas in store is up to 84.92% full on July 29 according to GIE.
• Shell’s Canada LNG export project is expected to produce its first cargoes in the middle of 2025 according to its CEO Wael Sawan.
• LNG imports to Taiwan surged 9% y/y to a record in July at nearly 2m tons with a boost to power consumption due to recent hot weather, according to Bloomberg.
• Average gas flows from Russia’s Gazprom towards Europe reached their highest of the year in July – up 5.7% y/y and 12% higher than June according to Reuters calculations.