Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Ticks Down

Front month TTF is extending yesterday’s losses which pushed prices to their lowest since June 10. Supply risks have eased and with cool weather in NW Europe this week. Meanwhile, storage levels are still on target to fill comfortably ahead of winter.

• TTF AUG 24 down 0.3% at 33.38€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 2.1% at 35.05€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to slowly increase over the coming week and return above normal into the second week of the outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 335.6mcm/d amid ongoing outages this week at Kasto, Troll and Visund according to Gassco.
• European LNG sendout was steady at 239mcm/d on June 30 according to Bloomberg and just below the average in June of 246mcm/d.
• Total European stores are up to 77.39% full on June 30 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 67.35% with net injection rates back up near normal.
• Russia’s LNG exports rose 2.7% in H1 of 2024 to 16.79 million metric tons according to Kommersant but the outlet said volumes would likely slip in the coming months due to expected maintenance at Sakhalin 2.
• A federal judge has blocked Biden’s administration from continuing to pause the approval on applications to export LNG on Monday.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days fell by 8.1% last week to 4.58m tons as of June 30, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The LNG market is set for an oversupply from 2027 with demand growth, led by expanding infrastructure and efforts to reduce carbon-intensity, lagging the expansion in supply, according to BNEF.