Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Trades Rangebound

TTF is holding just above the previous close after falling to a low of 44.57€/MWh earlier this week. Near term fundamentals suggest healthy supplies and low demand with mild weather still holding across much of Europe.

• TTF DEC 23 up 0.1% at 46.1€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.2% at 47.73€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.7% at 46.15€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were steady yesterday at 238k.
• The latest weather forecast shows a brief cold spell in UK and Italy over the weekend before returning back above normal into the middle of the month.
• European LNG sendout increased up to the highest since June 406mcm/d on 6 Nov. LNG imports into Northwest Europe are expected to see a month on month rise in November based on current arrival rates according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up near the highest of the year at 341.7mcm/d but is expected to dip again into the weekend with a 20.5mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are almost unchanged from yesterday at 99.62% full on 6 Nov with net injections of just 97GWh/d according to GIE data. The previous five year average for this time of year is 90.0% with withdrawals starting from 3 Nov.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to Bloomberg.
  • JKM DEC 23 down -1% at 16.62$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0$/mmbtu at 2.2$/mmbtu
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators increased by 8.72% week on week to 2.37 million tons as of 5 November, well above the five-year average, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• Qatar’s Ras Laffan mega LNG complex is still likely to still undergoing maintenance, as no tankers have loaded at the Ras Kaffan Berth 3 since 7 September, Bloomberg ship-tracking data showed, which led to a significant decline in October shipments.
• Nigeria’s export LNG facility at Bonny continues to remain under a force majeure, with current output now falling to below 50% of its nameplate capacity of 22.5m mtpa, according to Platts.
• Excelerate Energy said Nov. 8 that it has signed a long-term deal to supply LNG to Bangladesh’s Petrobangla, according to Bloomberg.