Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Winter Contracts Lead Gains

European gas markets are holding onto gains with future winter contracts outpacing front curve gains, after nearing pre-Mideast conflict lows on Wednesday. The ongoing cold spell and higher storage withdrawals are weighed against strong near-term supplies and forecasts for milder weather from mid next week.

• TTF JAN 24 up 2.9% at 42.49€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 2.9% at 42.73€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.6% at 41.8€/MWh
• Below normal temperatures in NW and central Europe expected until the weekend but are forecast to warm back above normal into next week.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood at 3,300GWh/d, 13.1% below the 2018-2021 average, according to Bnetza.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today back up to 352.9mcm/d with the return of Aasta Hansteen and Troll from short term outages.
• European natural gas storage is down to 96.51% full on Nov 28 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 85.6% with greater than normal net withdrawal rates.
• European LNG sendout was up again to 477mcm/d on Nov 28 compared to an average for the previous week of 401mcm/d.
• Europe needs additional LNG to ease the gas market as the continent moves on from the 2022 gas crisis, its CEO Michael Lewis told Bloomberg.
• The LNG sector is seeing cost inflation across the entire value chain according to Jonty Shepard at BP at the World LNG Summit. Cost inflation is seen in liquefaction, shipping and spending on decarbonization and reducing methane leaks.
• Growing demand for LNG is expected to drive the global fleet of LNG vessels up by around 50% to almost 1,000 by 2025 according to shipping giant Angelicoussis Group via Montel.
  • JKM DEC 23 up 3.5% at 15.8$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 2.4$/mmbtu