Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Extends Losses

Crude futures are trading lower, breaking through yesterday’s lows as the market assess the upside risk of an extension or a deepening of the OPEC group and unilateral supply reductions at the meeting this weekend. Oil prices are off their early session highs following confirmation of an Israeli/Hamas temporary ceasefire as part of a deal to free hostages.

• Brent JAN 24 down -1.2% at 81.46$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 down -1.2% at 76.81$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 up 0.4% at 830.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.65$/bbl
• The market is widely pricing in an extension to the OPEC+ member voluntary cuts and is assessing the possibility for them to deepen amid global demand concerns and with stronger supply from non-OPEC and sanctioned countries.
• OPEC countries including Saudi Arabia may extend voluntary cuts to the end of Q224 but are not expected to further deepen the official reductions or new voluntary cuts at this stage, according to Morgan Stanley.
• OPEC+ may need to announce deeper production cuts to offset strong supply growth from US plus others according to hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand in a Bloomberg tv interview.
• API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday according to Bloomberg: Crude +9.05mbbl, Cushing +0.64mbbl, Gasoline -1.79mbbl, Distillate -3.51mbbl.
• Crude stockpiles in ARA fell 4.2mn bbls or 8.1% on a weekly basis for the week ended November 17 to 47.5mn bbls according to Genscape.
• EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week to Nov 17 is due for release this afternoon at 10:30 ET (15:30GMT). The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET due to the US holiday this week.
• Russian oil-product exports are on course to reach a four month high in November driven by diesel according to Bloomberg based on Vortexa data.
• Diesel and gasoline cracks gained ground late yesterday ahead of the EIA data today with falling stocks weighed with demand concerns despite record Thanksgiving Travel expected this week.
• US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 15.35$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -0.5$/bbl at 41.79$/bbl