Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Holds Onto Gains

Crude markets are extending earlier gains following the adjustment higher to the 2024 oil demand growth forecast in the latest IEA monthly oil report. Previous gains were on the back of higher-than-expected US stockpile draws, Red Sea vessel attacks and signals of Fed cuts in 2024.

• Brent FEB 24 up 1.7% at 75.49$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 1.6% at 70.61$/bbl
• Global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 has been revised up by 130kbpd to 1.1mbpd, while expectations for this year’s demand growth have been lowered as the weakening economic climate is slowing down oil demand growth, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.
• WTI Jan24 Option Expiry – Thu 14 December 23 at 14:30 ET close. A total of 605mbbls of open January 24 options positions on CME and ICE are due to expire against the January future close tomorrow. Current aggregate open interest is 350k call contracts and 256k puts.
• The ARA Insights Global oil products stockpiles are due to be released this afternoon.
• The BOE rate decision is expected at 12:00GMT and the ECB rate decision is due to be announced at 14:15 CET.
• The Presidents of Venezuela and Guyana are set to meet Thursday in a diplomatic attempt to ease tensions over the latest border dispute escalation.
• Liberty, the dark-fleet oil tanker that ran aground off Indonesia around 11 days ago has been freed after releasing its cargo to another tanker to reduce it draft.
• Brazilian October oil production was at 3.536mbpd according to ANP figures, -3.5% m/m, +9.2% y/y.
• India’s imports of Russian oil rose to a four-month high of 1.6mbpd in November, up by 3.1% month on month, with Russia accounting for around 36% of India’s oil imports last month.
• Asia-Pacific international air travel is catching that of other regions despite the continued slow pace of China recovery according to Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) figures.
• Exxon’s Beaumont refinery, Texas will begin a multi-unit turnaround from January 1, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Finland’s Neste is planning a major turnaround at its 206kbpd Porvoo refinery during April-June 2024, the firm said in a statement.
• The latest monthly IEA report points to “materially weaker” global refinery runs in Q4 than expected.
• CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s teapot refineries averaged 64.3% in the week to Dec. 14, up 0.95 percentage points on the week, according to OilChem.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 16.09$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 37.89$/bbl