Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude on Track For Weekly Net Increase

Crude markets have been stabilizing today and are on track for a small weekly net increase of roughly 1% driven by supply risks amid the Middle Eastern conflict and Red Sea vessel attacks as well as production disruptions in the US and Libya. Gains are limited due to concerns for slower US Fed rate cuts and weak Chinese demand.

• Brent MAR 24 down -0.1% at 79.05$/bbl
• WTI FEB 24 up 0% at 74.09$/bbl
• The Houthi rebels launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles at the Marshall Island-flagged M/V Chem Ranger vessel on Thursday evening, the US Central Command said via X.
• Russian and Chinese ships don’t need to fear attack in the Red Sea, Mohammad al-Bukhaiti, spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi militants, told Russian newspaper Izvestia, cited by Bloomberg.
• The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET. The ICE and Nymex CoT reports are due for release after the close today at 18:30GMT and 15:30ET.
• The price of UAE’s Murban crude in the spot market dominated by Asia has risen this week according to Bloomberg sources.
• Macquarie Group expect oil prices to remain rangebound during Q1 2024 unless conflict in the Middle East results in actual supply loss according to Bloomberg.
• Saudi Arabia is not worried about oil prices as the Kingdom’s oil revenues surpassed 2023 projections, Saudi Arabia’s Finance Mohammed Minister Al-Jadaan told Bloomberg TV.
• Oil prices are likely to move down over the year as the market increasingly looks oversupplied in the face of stuttering demand growth and high U.S. output, Dallas Fed senior business economist Garrett Golding told MNI.
• NORSI, Russia’s fourth largest oil refinery with a capacity of around 340k b/d, is likely to restore over 70% of its gasoline production capacity in the next few days, sources told Reuters and cited by Zawya.
• Chinese diesel and gasoline production fell in December year on year but rose from November levels according to data from China’s statistics bureau.
• US diesel cracks continue to edge higher supported by refinery outages despite both seeing stock builds last week. EIA showed four week average gasoline demand in line with the five year average while distillates four week demand is the lowest since Jul 2020.
• Exxon Mobil is overhauling the 65kbpd hydrocracker and the 75kbpd reformer at its 619.024kbpd Beaumont refinery in Texas, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
• The 238kb/d Total Port Arthur refinery in Texas remained shut on Jan 18 following a plant-wide power outage on Jan 16 according to Reuters sources.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 17.2$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.6$/bbl at 39.55$/bbl