Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rises Ahead of CPI, OPEC MOMR

Crude markets are trending higher today supported by uncertainty over Middle East tensions and the impact of supplies ahead of the US CPI data and OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.7% at 82.58$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 up 0.7% at 77.46$/bbl
• A total of 707mbbls of open March 24 options positions on CME and ICE are currently due to expire against the March future close tomorrow. Current aggregate open interest is 377k call contracts and 330k puts.
• The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is due for release today (at 13:45CET last month).
• The US CPI data due at 08:30 ET. Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in January with mild risk seen to the downside, for a very similar reading to December after Friday’s annual revisions.
• The Brent-Dubai crude spread is forecast wider at 80c/bbl on average over 2024-2025 according to Goldman Sachs although with potential for seasonal swings of about $1/bbl during winter.
• Global oil demand is expected to grow slower this year by 1.2-1.3mbpd this year, IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said to Bloomberg.
• Morgan Stanley has raised the Brent price forecast for 2024 and 2025 amid tighter than expected supplies after recent inventory declines.
• The cost of to import Russian crude oil to India fell to $77.82/bbl in December, below Iraqi and Saudi Arabian prices according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
• Around half of the 50 tankers that the US Treasury has been sanctioning since 10 October have failed to load cargoes, Bloomberg ship tracking data showed.
• An explosion at Pemex’ 215kbpd Miguel Hidalgo refinery, or Tula, on Monday afternoon local time injured eight workers according to Radio Formula.
• Wood Mackenzie expect diesel/gasoil stocks in northwest Europe to fall over the next two months before a recovery into Q2.
• Diesel crack spreads yesterday erased most of Friday’s rise but are holding most of this month’s gains amid Red Sea diversions, refinery maintenance, and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 22.36$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 46.18$/bbl