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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rises On Sanction Comments

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Crude prices have risen today amidst comments by the US Treasury Secretary that the US could sanction Russian energy further if Trump asks and that the US would like to cut Iranian oil exports to as low as 100k b/d. 

  • Brent APR 25 up 0.6% at 75.48$/bbl
  • WTI MAR 25 up 0.5% at 71.65$/bbl
  • US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent made the comments in an interview with Fox news, driving crude higher.
  • Signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions and ‘imminent’ Ukraine peace talks had caused prices to pull back from a peak mid week.
  • President Trump signed a measure proposing tariffs on numerous trading partners, assessing tariffs on a country by country basis. Reciprocal tariffs will not go into effect today and are time-delayed until April 1, CNBC reports.
  • IEA and EIA both now projecting similar oil market oversupply in 2025. The IEA expects oversupply of 450k b/d this year, while the EIA is projecting 430k b/d oversupply.
  • India seeks to boost US oil & gas imports after Trump-Modi meeting yesterday, in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs.
  • Indian buyers are facing a thinner discount of $2.50-$2.90/bbl for March delivery for Russian Urals because of narrower availability. It compares to  ~$3-$3.50 before the January sanctions trade sources said to Reuters.
  • Buyers will likely look to swap US oil cargoes heading to China with buyers in neighbouring countries since tariff exemptions seem unlikely, according to Vortexa.
  • Mexican oil exports fell to their lowest monthly level on record in January, averaging just 535 kbd, a decline of 400 kbd m/m according to Kpler vessel tracking.
  • The recent temporary suspension of potential tariffs on Canada has allowed differentials for Canadian heavy sours to recover, Kpler said.
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Crude prices have risen today amidst comments by the US Treasury Secretary that the US could sanction Russian energy further if Trump asks and that the US would like to cut Iranian oil exports to as low as 100k b/d. 

  • Brent APR 25 up 0.6% at 75.48$/bbl
  • WTI MAR 25 up 0.5% at 71.65$/bbl
  • US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent made the comments in an interview with Fox news, driving crude higher.
  • Signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions and ‘imminent’ Ukraine peace talks had caused prices to pull back from a peak mid week.
  • President Trump signed a measure proposing tariffs on numerous trading partners, assessing tariffs on a country by country basis. Reciprocal tariffs will not go into effect today and are time-delayed until April 1, CNBC reports.
  • IEA and EIA both now projecting similar oil market oversupply in 2025. The IEA expects oversupply of 450k b/d this year, while the EIA is projecting 430k b/d oversupply.
  • India seeks to boost US oil & gas imports after Trump-Modi meeting yesterday, in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs.
  • Indian buyers are facing a thinner discount of $2.50-$2.90/bbl for March delivery for Russian Urals because of narrower availability. It compares to  ~$3-$3.50 before the January sanctions trade sources said to Reuters.
  • Buyers will likely look to swap US oil cargoes heading to China with buyers in neighbouring countries since tariff exemptions seem unlikely, according to Vortexa.
  • Mexican oil exports fell to their lowest monthly level on record in January, averaging just 535 kbd, a decline of 400 kbd m/m according to Kpler vessel tracking.
  • The recent temporary suspension of potential tariffs on Canada has allowed differentials for Canadian heavy sours to recover, Kpler said.