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Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rising on Week

OIL

Crude is edging up again today ahead of the Brent August future contract expiry, although has struggled to show clear direction over the last week.

  • Brent AUG 24 up 0.7% at 87.03$/bbl
  • WTI AUG 24 up 0.8% at 82.43$/bbl
  • Geopolitical risks including conflict in the Middle East and Russian energy infrastructure strikes are supportive while the market looks for indications of future demand from updated data in the US and China.
  • China official PMI prints for June are expected on Sunday with manufacturing expected unchanged while US PCE data today will be a key focus point for the Fed outlook.
  • The latest Baker Hughes rig count data is due for release at 13:00ET.
  • Saudi may cut OSP’s for Asia for a second month in August following weakness in Middle East benchmark Dubai according to a Reuters survey.
  • Iran’s crude/condensate exports accounted for 9% of OPEC’s crude/condensate exports in February 2024 and again in May 2024, the highest share since August 2018 according to Vortexa.
  • Venezuela crude production is up to 1mb/d, according to President Nicolas Maduro on state TV cited by Bloomberg.
  • The Panama Canal recovery is unlikely to restore the number of LNG transits of the choke point, according to BNEF.
  • It’s hard to say there is no political risk premium priced into oil at present according to Marcus Garvey, Managing Director of Macquarie Group in a CNBC interview this week.

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