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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Set for Weekly Decline

OIL
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Crude front month extends the weekly decline under pressure from the potential for less US Fed rate cuts next year, bearish sentiment from mixed Chinese data and 2025 oversupply fears. However, crude curve backwardation remains strong suggesting supplies remain tight after the OPEC+ delay and with supply risks due to increased sanctions on Russia and Iran.

  • China’s November imports of crude oil from Malaysia and Russia fell from the previous month as imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq increased, according to General Administration of Customs data.
  • The volume of Iranian oil on tanker at sea seven days or more has risen to the highest since late July at 16.82mbbl as of Dec. 15, as increasing US sanctions disrupt flows to China according to Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
  • U.S. crude exports to Europe are expected to fall in January after Kpler data showed a record high of 771kb/d US exports to ARA in November, according to Reuters. The WTI / Brent spread has narrowed this week to the closest spread since October 2023 at -$3.39/bbl.
  • Norway’s oil production dipped to 1.736mbpd in November from 1.781mbpd October but was 3.2% higher than the official forecast of 1.682mbpd.
    • Brent FEB 25 down 0.8% at 72.28$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 down 0.9% at 68.74$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down 0.13$/bbl at -3.54$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 down 0.03$/bbl at 0.4$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.08$/bbl at 1.39$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 12.02$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 24.39$/bbl
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Crude front month extends the weekly decline under pressure from the potential for less US Fed rate cuts next year, bearish sentiment from mixed Chinese data and 2025 oversupply fears. However, crude curve backwardation remains strong suggesting supplies remain tight after the OPEC+ delay and with supply risks due to increased sanctions on Russia and Iran.

  • China’s November imports of crude oil from Malaysia and Russia fell from the previous month as imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq increased, according to General Administration of Customs data.
  • The volume of Iranian oil on tanker at sea seven days or more has risen to the highest since late July at 16.82mbbl as of Dec. 15, as increasing US sanctions disrupt flows to China according to Kpler cited by Bloomberg.
  • U.S. crude exports to Europe are expected to fall in January after Kpler data showed a record high of 771kb/d US exports to ARA in November, according to Reuters. The WTI / Brent spread has narrowed this week to the closest spread since October 2023 at -$3.39/bbl.
  • Norway’s oil production dipped to 1.736mbpd in November from 1.781mbpd October but was 3.2% higher than the official forecast of 1.682mbpd.
    • Brent FEB 25 down 0.8% at 72.28$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 down 0.9% at 68.74$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down 0.13$/bbl at -3.54$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 down 0.03$/bbl at 0.4$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.08$/bbl at 1.39$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 12.02$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 24.39$/bbl