Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Stabilizes

The crude oil market has drifted lower in the morning but started to stabilize with concern for economic growth in China and the impact on global oil demand. Soft economic data from China this week has brought economic uncertainties back into focus despite robust apparent oil demand with the general strengthening of the US dollar adding to the downside pressure.

• Brent OCT 23 down -0.1% at 84.82$/bbl
• WTI SEP 23 down 0% at 80.96$/bbl
• Gasoil SEP 23 up 0.1% at 883.75$/mt
• Crude inventories in the European ARA region rose by 427k bbl in the week ending 11 August to 61.9m bbl, above the five-year range, Genscape data show.
• API weekly oil stock data: Crude 16.2mbbl, Cushing -1.03mbbl, Gasoline -0.761mbbl, Distillates +658mbbl
• The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data is due for release this afternoon at 15:30BST. Crude inventories are expected to draw by -2.4mbbls for the week ending 11 Aug according to a Bloomberg survey.
• A total of 673kbbls of open September 23 options positions on CME and ICE are due to expire against the September future close tomorrow. Current aggregate open interest is 344k calls and 328k puts. The open interest across all WTI options on both exchanges is currently 1.69m calls and 1.26m puts. The most significant open position at nearby strikes is just below the current market prices at the 80$/bbl strike prices with open interest of about 22k of calls and 18.5k of puts. Above the current market another 11k of open interest sits at the 84$/bbl strike and 15k at 85$/bbl.
• UBS has increased their year end Brent price forecast from 90$/bbl to 95$/bbl.
• Mid-month figures for global arrivals of Saudi crude stands at 7.2mbd in August, up by 1.1mbd from July.
• China will import around 1.5m b/d of Iranian crude in August, compared to an average of 917k b/d from Jan-July. This would also be the highest level since Kpler’s records began in 2013.
• Germany’s OMV has completed turnarounds at the Schwechat refinery.
• ExxonMobil plans two multi-unit overhauls at its Beaumont, Texas refinery in 2024.
• Gasoline and diesel sales among Indian state retailers declined in the first half of August both compared to July and versus the same period in 2022 as monsoon rains disrupt industrial activity and road mobility.
• US and European margins are edging higher today with ongoing support from low inventories and with sensitivity to any supply disruptions. API data last night gave little sign of any recovery in US stocks levels with a small draw for gasoline and small build for distillates.
• US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 38.31$/bbl
• US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 46.46$/bbl