Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Stabilizes

Crude is stabilizing after gaining ground earlier in the session as Turkey has stepped in to mediate tensions between Iran and Pakistan. Earlier upside was driven by further US missile strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen after another merchant vessel was attacked on Wednesday. Additional outages in North Dakota of 650-700kbpd due to freezing weather and a weaker US dollar have added to the upside pressure with a more mixed risk sentiment.

• Brent MAR 24 up 0.2% at 78.03$/bbl
• WTI FEB 24 up 0.4% at 72.83$/bbl
• Turkey has stepped in to try to calm the escalation in tensions between Iran and Pakistan following missile strikes ordered by Islamabad on supposed 'terrorist hideouts' in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province.
• Iran has sent missiles into other countries this week, including Iraq and Pakistan. Pakistan is reported to have now struck Iran in retaliation, adding significantly to the potential for conflict to spread in the region.
• The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 has been revised higher by 180kbpd to 1.2mbpd to reach almost 103mbpd, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.
• Vitol expects downward pressure on prices with Saudi Arabia to end its voluntary crude production cuts later this year.
• API weekly oil stock data: Crude +0.483mbbl, Cushing -1.98mbbl, Gasoline +4.86mbbl, Distillate +5.21mbbl
• The day delayed EIA weekly petroleum inventory data for the week to 12 Jan is due at 16:00GMT.
• A chamber of Venezuela's supreme court has gone into an indefinite recess as a ban on leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado remains according to Argus reports breaching Barbados agreement terms.
• China is estimated to have increased the volume of crude oil inventories in December as lower prices and muted demand encouraged refiners to raise imports and maintain high levels according to Reuters.
• Singapore’s middle distillates inventories fell for the third consecutive week to 6.903mn barrels in the week through 17 January, down by 3% on the week, and the lowest level in over a year, data from Enterprise Singapore showed.
• Chinese gasoline exports in December declined by 59.9% year on year to 770k tons, while diesel exports plummeted by 76% year on year to 670k tons last month, General Administration of Customs data showed, cited by Bloomberg, likely because export quotas ran low toward the end of the year.
• US diesel and gasoline cracks have weakened erasing some of the gains from earlier in the week following confirmation that operations at the Baywater refinery are not disrupted. US temperatures are expected to warm into next week to help ease the disruption due to the severe cold this week. API data showed further US stocks builds yesterday to add to the downside pressure on cracks.
• The hydrocracker halted at Total Antwerp Thursday according to WoodMac.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 16.76$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 38.46$/bbl