Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Ticks Back Up

Crude is showing a recovery today after steep losses yesterday, driven by building US crude inventories, soft global demand concerns, and added pressure from the hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.

• Brent JUL 24 up 0.6% at 83.97$/bbl
• WTI JUN 24 up 0.5% at 79.41$/bbl
• Canada’s long awaited TMX pipeline began official commercial operations May 1 but tankers will not be able to load crude from the line until later this month.
• The OPEC+ group is expected to maintain production cuts through the second half of this year, according to Citigroup.
• Indian Oil Corp resumed Russian crude purchases delivered on Sovcomflot tankers, taking delivery of a load this week having shunned them through March and much of April.
• Global oil demand grew by 1.9mn bpd in April according to high frequency demand indictors cited by JP Morgan analysts.
• Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for the gasoil margin in Northwest Europe by $2/bbl to $27/bbl by December on a weakening demand outlook, according to Bloomberg.
• Global crude exports were hit in April by a slowdown in barrels leaving the US Gulf – denting a major contributor for global markets this year.
• The OPEC+ group is expected to extend production cuts into second half of 2024 according to 26 of 30 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
• OPEC+ has not begun formal talks on extending the 2.2mn bpd of voluntary cuts beyond June according to Reuters sources.
• Singapore distillate stockpiles fell 6% w/w for the week ended May 1, the lowest figure since mid-November.
• Gasoline cracks are ticking up today, while diesel cracks are losing ground amid a weaker demand trend.
• US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 29.49$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 23.8$/bbl