Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Tracks Weekly Net Loss

Crude markets are tracking a weekly net loss with Brent front month down by more than 4% from last Friday’s close. Crude markets are retreating today after Iranian media have been downplaying Israel’s attack on Iran, while Iranian military is reportedly not planning an imminent retaliation.

• Brent JUN 24 down 0.5% at 86.69$/bbl
• WTI MAY 24 down 0.6% at 82.27$/bbl
• Israel and Iran have played down the significance of an overnight Israeli strike on a military facility near the Iranian city of Isfahan. It is unclear the extent of the damage, but the attack, whilst hitting targets within Iran, appears to have fallen short of the worst-case scenario of a major strike of Iranian nuclear or energy infrastructure.
• The escalation from the latest Israel/Iran response will be contained and appears well orchestrated according to Macquarie’s Managing Director of Securities Viktor Schvets.
• Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro criticized the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden for making good on its "blackmail threat" in a tv address Thursday after the license 44 oil export license was not renewed this week.
• China will likely face less competition for Venezuelan crude as India steps away from purchasing barrels in the wake of renewed sanctions, according to Platts.
• Asia’s crude stock draws are slowing, while Europe sees some rebuilding – partially facilitated by refinery maintenance according to Vortexa.
• Norway’s total liquids production in March edged higher to 2.086mbpd, 3.9% above the forecast, NPD data showed.
• Kazakhstan is braced for levels on the Ural River to rise sharply on Friday due to high rainfall, something that could threaten two of its western regions and key oil infrastructure.
• Storage capacity utilisation rates at Shandong’s independent refineries have been largely stable in the week to April 19 at 43.7%, according to OilChem.
• Saudi Arabia will require an average oil price of $96.20/bbl this year, if the producer decides to hold output steady close to 9.3mbpd, the IMF said in its economic outlook.
• China’s state and independent refiners cut run rates in the week to April 18 to 77.82%, the lowest level since February 29, according to OilChem.
• The US is aiming to keep gasoline prices in current ranges into this summer driving season according to President Biden’s top economic aide.
• US gasoline and diesel cracks furthered their fall yesterday amid weak EIA demand data earlier this week with US diesel cracks trading at the lowest since May 2023.
  • US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 30.83$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 23.91$/bbl