Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Trades Lower

Crude markets are trading at a new session low weighed on by easing supply issues in the US and Libya and lower demand growth. Crude prices are holding again within range of 74.79$/bbl to 80.75$/bbl seen so far this year. Rising Middle East tensions and an expected draw in US crude oil inventories are limiting downside.

• Brent MAR 24 down -0.6% at 79.11$/bbl
• WTI MAR 24 down -0.5% at 74$/bbl
• The UKMTO has received a report of an incident 45NM South of Aden, Yemen, it said on X
• US Central Command reported that on January 24 – approx. 2:30am Sanaa time – its forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea.
• Adding to Red Sea shipping concerns, Tanker Trackers has flagged that Iran is readying to launch its first drone carrier vessel, the Shahdid Mahdavi, a converted boxship previously called Sarvin.
• API weekly oil stock data: Crude -6.67mbbl, Cushing -2.03mbbl, Gasoline +7.18mbbl, Distillate -0.245mbbl
• ARA crude stocks fell 8.7mn bbls or 16% in the week ended January 19 to 45.5mn bbls according to Genscape.
• The EIA weekly petroleum inventory data is due for release this afternoon at 10:30 ET. Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of -0.908mbbl for the week ending 19 January according to a Bloomberg survey.
• Global oil demand growth is expected to almost halve in 2024 to 1.3%, slowing further to 0.9% in 2025 as demand normalises from its post Covid-10 recovery in China, while the transport electrification is weighing on oil demand, HSBC said in a note.
• Brazilian and Guyanese medium sweet grades have replaced Urals in Europe, according to Argus, citing Gustavo Hooper, head of trading and shipping at Brazilian independent Prio.
• Rising US production of light sweet crude was likely destined to be the most competitive grade in Europe, despite the recent shift in global trade flows caused by Russian sanctions, Gunvor’s general manager David Garza told Argus.
• Russia’s Novatek has resumed fuel loadings at its Baltic Sea Ust-Luga terminal on Wednesday after a recent drone attack according to Reuters sources and data.
• Russia’s refined fuel exports fell to the lowest in seven weeks but remained above the Q1 target according to Bloomberg based on Vortexa data.
• Fujairah oil product stockpiles rose 2.9% in the week ended Jan. 22 - the first gain in three weeks - according to Fujairah Oil Industry Zone data.
• Gasoline crack spreads have pulled back from the highest since September earlier this week with US refinery outages set against weak demand estimates and a large build in the API gasoline inventories yesterday.
• Shell is planning start maintenance at the 404kbpd Pernis refinery in Rotterdam by the end of January, the firm said via X.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 19.02$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.7$/bbl at 36.8$/bbl