Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Trends Lower

Brent is edging lower after falling below $90/bbl earlier in the session, the lowest since 8 September, pressured from the renewed strength of the US dollar and concerns that demand growth could be limited by major central banks keeping interest rates higher for longer. Crude markets have puled back from a Brent front month peak of 97.6$/bbl on 28 Sep driven by the widely expected market deficit in Q4 amid tight supplies and inventories drawdowns.

• Brent DEC 23 down -0.6% at 90.19$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 down -0.5% at 88.41$/bbl
• Gasoil OCT 23 down -1.3% at 957.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.06$/bbl at -3.4$/bbl
• The latest JMMC monitoring committee meeting is due to take place tomorrow, but expectation is for no changes in policy. OPEC crude output rose for a second straight month in September according to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys.
• The API oil inventory data is due for release today at 16:30 ET.
• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by 200kbbls to 351.3mn barrels as of 29 September, DOE data showed.
• Venezuela’s oil exports topped 800kbpd in September, the second highest monthly pace this year according to Refinitiv.
• US crude oil exports last month rose to 4.412mbpd, up by 3.1% month on month according to data from Vortexa, Kpler and US Customs compiled by Bloomberg.
• Saudi may raise its OSPs for Arab Light to Asia higher for a fifth straight month in November due to prolonged cuts and resilient demand based on a Reuters survey.
• Russian oil imports into India rose 15% m/m in September to 1.78mn bpd after reaching a seven-month low in August according to Kpler.
• Pakistan received its second shipment of Russian crude oil yesterday, an estimated 728,000 barrels according to TankerTrackers.
• Exxon is preparing to restart a unit at its Fawley refinery in the UK over the coming days.
• Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak is set to hold a meeting with Russian oil companies October 4th to have an update on the fuel market situation.
• Diesel cracks have also been trending lower weighing the impact of the Russian fuel export ban against recent high Asian exports and ongoing economic demand concerns while global inventories remain below normal.
• US diesel exports to Brazil nearly doubled from August to September up to a four-month high of 79kbpd according to Bloomberg citing Kpler data.
• China’s strong diesel exports are not expected to last as refiners are unlikely to receive a fourth batch of export quotas according to Vortexa.
• US gasoline crack down -0.7$/bbl at 11.95$/bbl
• US ULSD crack down -2$/bbl at 44.71$/bbl