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Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE July Power Rebounds

POWER
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German and French July power base load prices have switched direction to edge slightly higher on the day, mirroring movements in European gas prices. Spot prices at the Epex Spot in CWE moved in mixed direction for Friday delivery.

    • France Base Power JUL 24 up 1.5% at 39.24 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 0.3% at 75.88 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 71.9 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas JUL 24 up 0.7% at 33.6 EUR/MWh
    • Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 down 1.7% at 113 USD/MT
  • TTF front month has reversed earlier losses to edge higher but remains well within this week’s range with support from a potential uptick in Asian LNG demand with netbacks still favouring Asia, while US LNG exports remain curtailed.
  • The EU ETS Dec 24 has reversed earlier losses to edge higher amid a rebound in European gas prices. Upside is limited amid bearish sentiment from speculators and sluggish industrial activity sentiment from Europe in this week’s data releases.
  • The latest EU ETS CAP3 EU auction cleared lower at €71/ton CO2e, down from €71.50/ton CO2e in the previous auction and the lowest price since mid May, according to EEX.
  • Rhine river water levels at the Kaub measuring point dipped the first time on Thursday since 28 May, after heavy rainfall caused flooding in southern Germany, WSA data showed.
  • Day-Ahead Auction: Spot prices at the Epex Spot in CWE moved in mixed direction for Friday delivery, with lower demand weighing on the German market, while forecasts for higher demand lower renewables output supported the French market. No CWE market saw negative priced hours for Friday delivery.
  • The Nordic front-year base load contract is edging up to follow slight gains in the surrounding European power markets. Prices could be supported on delivery towards the beginning of the year as demand usually picks up due to cooler temperatures in the region. However, limited maintenance at nuclear units is planned over 1Q25.
  • Poland could increase power exports to Ukraine to 1.2GW, from 340MW currently, if Entso-E would loosen export restrictions to the European eastern neighbouring countries, the head of Poland’s PSE, Grzegorz Onichimowski, told Montel.
  • Average Lithuanian power prices in May increased to about €76/MWh from €60/MWh in April despite solar power plants meeting about 25% of the country’s power demand as hydro power decreased, according to TSO Litgrid.
  • The UK is expecting to ensure security of power supply during the upcoming winter due to the new power interconnector with Denmark, new gas-fired power plants and more batteries, National Grid ESO said on Thursday.
  • Average prices of European power purchase agreements (PPAs) have moved up slightly so far in 2Q24 compared to the previous quarter. However, prices are sharply below costs for the same quarter in 2023-22, data from energy pricing firm Pexapark show. In the short term, PPA prices could be supported today amid increases in the energy complex.
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German and French July power base load prices have switched direction to edge slightly higher on the day, mirroring movements in European gas prices. Spot prices at the Epex Spot in CWE moved in mixed direction for Friday delivery.

    • France Base Power JUL 24 up 1.5% at 39.24 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 0.3% at 75.88 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 up 0.1% at 71.9 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas JUL 24 up 0.7% at 33.6 EUR/MWh
    • Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 down 1.7% at 113 USD/MT
  • TTF front month has reversed earlier losses to edge higher but remains well within this week’s range with support from a potential uptick in Asian LNG demand with netbacks still favouring Asia, while US LNG exports remain curtailed.
  • The EU ETS Dec 24 has reversed earlier losses to edge higher amid a rebound in European gas prices. Upside is limited amid bearish sentiment from speculators and sluggish industrial activity sentiment from Europe in this week’s data releases.
  • The latest EU ETS CAP3 EU auction cleared lower at €71/ton CO2e, down from €71.50/ton CO2e in the previous auction and the lowest price since mid May, according to EEX.
  • Rhine river water levels at the Kaub measuring point dipped the first time on Thursday since 28 May, after heavy rainfall caused flooding in southern Germany, WSA data showed.
  • Day-Ahead Auction: Spot prices at the Epex Spot in CWE moved in mixed direction for Friday delivery, with lower demand weighing on the German market, while forecasts for higher demand lower renewables output supported the French market. No CWE market saw negative priced hours for Friday delivery.
  • The Nordic front-year base load contract is edging up to follow slight gains in the surrounding European power markets. Prices could be supported on delivery towards the beginning of the year as demand usually picks up due to cooler temperatures in the region. However, limited maintenance at nuclear units is planned over 1Q25.
  • Poland could increase power exports to Ukraine to 1.2GW, from 340MW currently, if Entso-E would loosen export restrictions to the European eastern neighbouring countries, the head of Poland’s PSE, Grzegorz Onichimowski, told Montel.
  • Average Lithuanian power prices in May increased to about €76/MWh from €60/MWh in April despite solar power plants meeting about 25% of the country’s power demand as hydro power decreased, according to TSO Litgrid.
  • The UK is expecting to ensure security of power supply during the upcoming winter due to the new power interconnector with Denmark, new gas-fired power plants and more batteries, National Grid ESO said on Thursday.
  • Average prices of European power purchase agreements (PPAs) have moved up slightly so far in 2Q24 compared to the previous quarter. However, prices are sharply below costs for the same quarter in 2023-22, data from energy pricing firm Pexapark show. In the short term, PPA prices could be supported today amid increases in the energy complex.