Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE Slides

Front-month power futures in CWE are pulling back amid losses in the European energy complex, with France erasing some of the weekly gains. Most of CWE countries will see some negative prices on Saturday amid high renewables output and lower demand.

• France Base Power JUL 24 down 3.1% at 49.37 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 down 1% at 72.41 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 1.1% at 68.43 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUL 24 down 1.1% at 34.095 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal JUL 24 down 2.7% at 110 USD/MT
• TTF is oscillating between €33.9 and €35.9/MWh with increased demand due to warmer weather weighing against the easing of LNG supply risks amid a planned restart of Australia’s Wheatstone LNG.
• EU ETS Dec 24 is edging slightly lower today but is broadly in line with last Friday’s close as higher demand expectations from the power sector are offset by losses in European natural gas prices. The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared lower at €67.36/ton CO2e, down from €68.41/ton CO2e in the previous auction, according to EEX.
• The EU’s industrial sector’s share of demand for a growing deficit of carbon allowances is expected to be in line with the power sector’s by 2030, as the power sector’s share of the total deficit is forecast to fall to 39% by 2030, consultancy ClearBlue told Montel.
• Solar output in the Europe has been reduced by up to 20% this week due to Saharan dust reducing clear ski irradiance according to Solcast API, cited by PV Magazine.
• Germany awarded 2.5GW of new offshore wind capacity in the latest tender round from 1 June, Bnetza data showed.
• French onshore and offshore wind capacity additions stood at 281MW in Q1 2024, significantly down from 881MW in the same quarter last year according to data from the Ecological Transition Ministry.
• Nordic July power base-load is retreating with downside from European neighbouring countries and gas prices, while front-quarter prices are holding onto gains amid a warmer, drier weather outlook.
• Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor is scheduled to return on 5 July in an unplanned outage. The power supply to the plant is limited due to the capacity of Fingrid’s system protection, remit data showed.
• Norway’s NVE expects the country’s power balance to weaken in the coming years, but it still expects a power surplus in 2028.