Mid-Day Power Summary: France, German M1 Spread Widens

The French-German August power base-load spread has widened further today to the highest since 18 June, as potential export curbs and forecasts for high nuclear availability are weighing on the French market, while gains in the wider energy complex supported the German market.

• France Base Power AUG 24 down 3.6% at 42.36 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 up 1.6% at 75.71 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.2% at 67.6 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 2.7% at 32.65 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal AUG 24 up 1.5% at 114.4 USD/MT
• TTF front month is finding support today and is on track for a rise of around 1.3% on the week. Overall fundamentals remain stable with demand weak and stock levels robust.
• The EU ETS Dec 24 is trading higher today, on track for a weekly net increase with support from higher natural gas prices and forecasts for low renewables output in NW Europe.
• The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared at €66.33/ton CO2e, up from €64.73/ton CO2e in the previous auction last week according to EEX.
• EdF said on Friday it sees its nuclear generation this year at the upper end of the 315-345TWh range, amid better reactor performance.
• The unclear political situation in France after the snap election on 7 July is causing uncertainty for France’s EdF, CEO Luc Remont said on Friday, cited by Bloomberg.
• RTE’s announcement this week to curb power exports to its eastern neighbouring countries has further supported price spreads, while net power exports to its neighbours rose on all borders except for Switzerland this July amid improved nuclear availability.
• French hydropower stocks last week (week 29) moved down just slightly to remain firm from the previous week, albeit falling for the first time since week 17, to end the week at 3,100GWh of capacity, RTE data showed.
• Germany's Federal Network Agency BNetzA has reduced its onshore wind capacity in the third-round auction tender to about 2.7GW from 4.09GW initially anticipated, it said.
• UK firm Drax has upped its 2026 hedging by around 1.8TWh at the end of the 2Q24 compared to the end of 1Q, with its 2024-25 forwards sales only slightly increasing, it said.
• Poland’s Orlen and 17 EU companies have entered into a co-operation agreement to implement 300MW small modular reactors in the EU, it said, cited by ISB News.