Mid-Day Summary Gas: TTF Edges Down in Volatile Session

TTF sees another volatile trading session with the front month testing new lows from yesterday after opening higher in the morning. The market remains sensitive to supply risks from potential LNG strikes at Australian facilities and upcoming maintenance in Norway.

• TTF SEP 23 down -0.9% at 36.5€/MWh
• In Australia, a union ballot to vote for possible strike action at Chevron’s Gorgon and at its Wheatstone downstream facilities opened on Friday, while voting for workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone offshore platform is scheduled to open on 21 August.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are stable with today nominated at 326mcm/d ahead of an expected drop due to planned maintenance from this weekend with the biggest outages expected from around 26 August.
• Total storage is now over the EU pre winter target at 90.12% full on a 16 Aug according to GIE data. The five year average for storage at this time of year is 76.55%.
• Russian pipeline exports to Europe maintained their recent increase in the first half of August. Combined flows via the two remaining gas pipeline routes – excluding flows through Turkey – rose 6% compared with the first half of July to 1.36bcm.
• Italy has reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas to almost zero, the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security said.
• Hungary can begin to receive shipments of LNG from Qatar in 2023 according to the Hungarian Foreign Minister.
• Poland’s Orlen has signed a contract with Gaz-System for 6.1 Bcm/yr of capacity for 15 years at the planned Gdansk LNG terminal.
• LNG sendout to Europe was up slightly at 305mcm/d on 16 August after seeing flows below 300mcm/d over the previous week.
• China’s imports of LNG are expected to slow in the winter season, replaced instead by cheaper forms of gas.
• China’s LNG imports in July rose by 24.3% to 5.68mn tons. Pipeline natural gas imports in July stood at 4.45mn tons, up by 12.4% on the year.
• US LNG is more profitable to Asia for the remainder of 2023. US LNG cargoes to Asia in October garner a netback of $10.37/MMBtu, compared with $9.94/MMBtu to Europe. In November, the netback to Asia is $12.49/MMBtu, while Europe’s netback for the same period is $12.11/MMBtu. The December netback to Asia is $13.58/MMBtu compared to $12.88/MMBtu for Europe.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 up 3.3$/mmbtu at 2.41$/mmbtu