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Mid-Month Inflation Due Before Banxico Decision Thursday

MEXICO
  • Late surge in TIIE swap rates yesterday across the curve reaching highest levels since April 2020. USDMXN probed back above 20.80 but has consolidated closer to 20.70 with the bounce in oil prices.
  • Price action was more volatile in commodity linked G10 currencies yesterday, with USDMXN lacking momentum in either direction. Desks have noted that a large amount of FI hedges have been put on, which could weigh on the pair going forward.
  • Mid-month inflation data and unemployment the focus today. So far 13/23 analysts are calling for an unchanged decision at tomorrow's Banxico decision. Our full preview will be published this afternoon.
    • 1200GMT/0800ET – Bi-Weekly CPI - Estimate 0.31% m/m vs 0.31% Prior
    • 1200GMT/0800ET – Bi-Weekly CPI - Estimate 3.90% y/y vs 3.68% Prior
    • 1200GMT/0800ET – Bi-Weekly Core CPI - Estimate 0.20% m/m vs 0.18% Prior
    • 1200GMT/0800ET – Mexico Feb Unemployment Rate NSA - Estimate 4.40% vs 4.73% Prior

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