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Mid-Month Inflation In Focus, Expected To Rise Back Above 8% Y/y

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian Real continued the upward trajectory towards the June 2020 highs amid bolstered risk sentiment and regional outperformance on Thursday. Inflation figures due at the top of the hour. The rise in fuel and electricity prices is considered likely to drive up headline inflation, to the highest levels since 2016:
    • 1300BST/0800ET – Brazil June Mid-Month IPCA (Est 0.85% m/m, Prior 0.44%)
    • 1300BST/0800ET – Brazil June Mid-Month IPCA (Est 8.16% y/y, Prior 7.27%)
  • Brazil Sets 2024 Inflation Target at 3%; Keeps 2023 at 3.25% (Bloomberg)
    • Margin of tolerance will be kept at plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, according to Brazil's Monetary Council.
    • A 3% inflation target for 2024 reduces uncertainties, says a statement released by Economy Ministry
    • A 0.25 percentage point drop is consistent with the high credibility of Brazil's monetary policy: Economy Ministry
    • The path may be clear for BRL to rally further as international markets face a relatively thin agenda and the central bank's lower 2024 inflation goal may keep policy makers tilted toward a hawkish stance for a long time.
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