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Mid-Month IPCA-15 Inflation Due At 1200GMT / 0800ET

BRAZIL
  • IPCA-15 inflation data for the first half of March will cross at 1200GMT(0800ET), with consensus for a further decline of inflation to 4.09% y/y, from 4.49% previously. Central government budget balance figures for February will also be released at 1730GMT(1330ET), with analysts there expecting a deficit of BRL 58.3bn, vs. +BRL 79.3bn prior.
    • March IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 4.09%, prior 4.49%
    • March IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.30%, prior 0.78%
  • Earlier, the minutes to last week’s Copom meeting highlight the need for greater policy flexibility, stressing that the change in the forward guidance was due to a change in uncertainty and not in the baseline scenario. Some members also argued that if uncertainty remains high in the future, a slower pace of monetary easing may prove appropriate. Members noted that inflation expectations remain unanchored and are a cause for concern, although the latest BCB focus survey, just released, did at least show a moderation in economist CPI forecasts for this year and next.
  • In other news, it has been reported that the police will investigate former President Bolsonaro’s apparent extended visit to the Hungarian embassy in the days following the seizure of his passport in February. The New York Times reported yesterday that Bolsonaro may have spent two days at the country’s embassy in Brasilia at that time.
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