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Mid-Month IPCA Inflation In Focus As Copom Decision Looms

BRAZIL
  • Headline data in the region today will be the Brazilian Mid-October reading of IPCA inflation. The annual reading is expected to print once again above 10%. Following the sharply revised inflation expectations yesterday within the BCB survey, both market pricing and analysts forecasts now predict a 150bps hike to the Selic rate as the most likely outcome from Wednesday's Copom meeting.
  • Additionally, September formal job creation and tax collections will be released.
  • USDBRL is hovering between the recently breached key level of 5.48 and a touted technical resistance area beginning at 5.75.
    • 1300BST/0800ET: Oct. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 10.11%, prior 10.05%
    • 1300BST/0800ET: Oct. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 1.00%, prior 1.14%
    • 1400BST/0900ET: Sept. Formal Job Creation Total, est. 355,000, prior 372,265
    • 1930BST/1430ET: Sept. Tax Collections, est. 147.6b, prior 146.5b
    • Treasury auctions of inflation-linked NTN-B local notes due 2024, 2028 and 2040
  • In local news: media reports on studies for the privatization of Petrobras yesterday were misleading, Brazilian Senator Fernando Bezerra Coelho, the govt whip, said in an interview. (Bloomberg)
    • Once the privatization of the postal service is approved, then we will have the opportunity to build a proposal for Petrobras, with its own concepts, Bezerra said, adding studies are currently underway at the Economy Ministry.
    • Senator also stressed that both the "timing and content" of the proposal have not yet been defined by the govt.
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