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Mid-Term Elections Dent Governing Coalition

ARGENTINA
  • The current ruling coalition suffered a blow at this weekend's mid-term elections, with the left-wing bloc now likely to lose their majority in the Senate having dropped 15 of the 24 districts up for election.
  • The results significantly complicate the ability for the Peronist left-wing coalition to advance legislation across the Senate (this marks the first time since the early 80's that a Peronist bloc is in the minority across the chamber).
  • Sell-side analysts see the results as potentially prompting a more market-friendly policy agenda, with the opposition now more able to hold the government to account. Nonetheless, there remains the risk of near-term populist legislation in an attempt to stem the tide of dissatisfaction toward President Fernandez and VP Kirchner.
  • Markets have welcomed the results, with markets watching for the re-opening of Argentine equities - recall that in September equities rallied sharply following the poor showing at that month's primaries.
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