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Midday Wrap

CREDIT UPDATE
  • BOE was a hold earlier today (7-2 on votes as we had expected) but language seemed to indicate dovish take on recent hot May services CPI and BBC reports seemed to indicate it was a close call to switching to a cut. 5yr gilts rallied 4-5bps on it but have nearly entirely revised this afternoon. Bunds are +4 in the belly and following US rates, our team struggles to see the driver for the sell-off, data was skewed to weaker prints in US morning.
  • €IG is struggling to give direction with a slight skew tighter, no curve movers in the index. Govvie owned TenneT (A3/A-) down up to 9pts after a transaction was called off - longs that were eyeing event of default clause & associated early call were left disappointed (see Essity curve for hopefuls).
  • Local primary is moving ahead, though still slowly; 2 in IG, 1 in HY, 1 Unrated (later pulled). $IG also mute (1 expected) while Hertz rocks their HY market with a Snr Sec. 5NC3 (snr unsec. are rated Caa1/B/CCC+), early reports coming at 13%a (eqv. T+870).
  • In €HY secondary, Intrum curve +3-7pts, equities +25% after it reached a deal with a group of '25 to '28 note holders on 10% equity and 90% refinancing into longer dated bonds ('27 to '30). Terms are contingent on financial documentation and revolvers etc. being set up, talks still ongoing with other bondholders.
  • We've now had 2 euro deals pulled within a week (of the ones that have come to market that is). In Otto's case it was likely on the poor fundamentals than on market sentiment that drove investors away (as it did for us). Local primary is heading for a lack-lustre week and as we have said previously we are heading into two months that have historically seen ~half May in monthly supply.
  • €IG equities are +0.3%, IT only sector on the move (+1.2%), single name mover from Lufthansa & Danone both down -4%, former on broker cut, latter after its capital markets day.

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