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MIDEAST: CNN-Israel At 'High Level Of Readiness' For Iran Retaliation

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CNN reported overnight that according to a military source, Israel is at a 'high level of readiness' for an Iranian retaliation to the strikes on military targets over the weekend. Adds that the Israeli military is “still assessing the decision-making process in Iran” to determine if and when a retaliation will take place." The strike on military targets, that hit missile factories and air defence capabilities, has both degraded Iran's ability to strike back and to defend itself from future attacks. As such, it is unclear what the nature of any retaliation could be. 

  • Israel's heightened readiness comes after comments on 30 Oct from a high-ranking Iranian official to CNN, saying that a “definitive and painful” response would be delivered against Israel, and that any attack  “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election. [5 Nov]”
  • There have been reports that Iran could use its proxies in Iraq, in the form of the numerous Shia militias in the country, to carry out a retaliatory attack. If this does prove to be the case, much like the Israeli strikes on military rather than nuclear facilities in Iran, it could be seen as coming at the lower end of the retaliatory spectrum.
  • An attack by Iraqi militias, rather than direct Iran-Israel fire, could limit any Israeli response to strikes on the militias rather than Iranian territory, thereby de-escalating the situation that had previously appeared to only ratchet upwards in tension. 
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CNN reported overnight that according to a military source, Israel is at a 'high level of readiness' for an Iranian retaliation to the strikes on military targets over the weekend. Adds that the Israeli military is “still assessing the decision-making process in Iran” to determine if and when a retaliation will take place." The strike on military targets, that hit missile factories and air defence capabilities, has both degraded Iran's ability to strike back and to defend itself from future attacks. As such, it is unclear what the nature of any retaliation could be. 

  • Israel's heightened readiness comes after comments on 30 Oct from a high-ranking Iranian official to CNN, saying that a “definitive and painful” response would be delivered against Israel, and that any attack  “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election. [5 Nov]”
  • There have been reports that Iran could use its proxies in Iraq, in the form of the numerous Shia militias in the country, to carry out a retaliatory attack. If this does prove to be the case, much like the Israeli strikes on military rather than nuclear facilities in Iran, it could be seen as coming at the lower end of the retaliatory spectrum.
  • An attack by Iraqi militias, rather than direct Iran-Israel fire, could limit any Israeli response to strikes on the militias rather than Iranian territory, thereby de-escalating the situation that had previously appeared to only ratchet upwards in tension.