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MIDEAST: Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: Risks To Longevity & Impact On Gaza

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Some initial thoughts on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire now that it is in action. 

  • The ceasefire is intended to be permanent. The first target will be reaching 60 days. It is during these first two months that Hezbollah is supposed to move northward all operatives and arms between the 'blue line' (the Israel-Lebanon border) and the Litani River, and the IDF shift southward. If this milestone can be reached without a resumption of hostilities then it is a good sign of a more long-lasting peace.
  • Needless to say, there are lots of risks. There are questions about whether the Lebanese army, intended to occupy the zones left by Hezbollah, will fire on Hezbollah if the group seeks to re-establish itself. It is also uncertain whether Israeli forces will immediately begin firing on Lebanon if they get a whiff of Hezbollah rearming. The deal is the most robust ceasefire agreed to date but not invulnerable to collapse from either side.
  • The Israel-Hezbollah deal inevitably brings questions about whether it makes a ceasefire in Gaza more likely. Ostensibly, there seems to be some impetus towards reaching an agreement. With the conflict in Lebanon over the focus will now be centred solely on Gaza.
  • However, there are big differences in the conflict. Israel can withdraw from Lebanon and consider the matter resolved. Whereas in Gaza there are major questions over its political situation after the war. Answering the question on Gaza's post-war situation, as well as getting the hostages back, are prerequisites for a ceasefire. There is little sign that either side is near that point yet.
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Some initial thoughts on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire now that it is in action. 

  • The ceasefire is intended to be permanent. The first target will be reaching 60 days. It is during these first two months that Hezbollah is supposed to move northward all operatives and arms between the 'blue line' (the Israel-Lebanon border) and the Litani River, and the IDF shift southward. If this milestone can be reached without a resumption of hostilities then it is a good sign of a more long-lasting peace.
  • Needless to say, there are lots of risks. There are questions about whether the Lebanese army, intended to occupy the zones left by Hezbollah, will fire on Hezbollah if the group seeks to re-establish itself. It is also uncertain whether Israeli forces will immediately begin firing on Lebanon if they get a whiff of Hezbollah rearming. The deal is the most robust ceasefire agreed to date but not invulnerable to collapse from either side.
  • The Israel-Hezbollah deal inevitably brings questions about whether it makes a ceasefire in Gaza more likely. Ostensibly, there seems to be some impetus towards reaching an agreement. With the conflict in Lebanon over the focus will now be centred solely on Gaza.
  • However, there are big differences in the conflict. Israel can withdraw from Lebanon and consider the matter resolved. Whereas in Gaza there are major questions over its political situation after the war. Answering the question on Gaza's post-war situation, as well as getting the hostages back, are prerequisites for a ceasefire. There is little sign that either side is near that point yet.