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Mildly Richer With Data And Further Tsy Note Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade between 0.5-1bp richer on the day, whilst 2s10s steps 2bp higher to -41.5bps owing to the new benchmark 2Y.
  • TYH4 has kept to tight ranges overnight, at 109-24+ off a high of 109-28, but the trend needle points south with support at 109-09 (Feb 23 low). The June contract should take the front tomorrow with ~85% roll pace.
  • Today’s focus should be on data including preliminary durable goods and the Conference Board consumer survey, plus 7y supply after small to modest tails for 2s and 5s yesterday. With the Conf Board, recall that it saw a surprise shunt higher in the labor differential last month which ending up boding well for the January payrolls report.
  • Data: Durable goods Jan prelim (0830ET), FHFA house prices Dec/Q4 (0900ET), S&P CoreLogic house prices Dec (0900ET), Conf. Board consumer survey Feb (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Feb (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Feb (1030ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barr on counterparty credit risk (0905ET incl text)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 7Y Note auction (91282CKC4) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $80B 42D CMB Bill auction – 1130ET
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