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Mildly Weaker Start Shortened Holiday Week, Fedspeak

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys looking mildly weaker, extending lows during London morning hours after briefly extending Friday highs in early Asia trade. Curves mildly steeper with Bonds lagging the short end, 2s10s +.383 at -38.936, 10Y yield +.0315 at 4.2296%, modest futures volumes with Jun'24 10Y trading just over 240k.
  • Busy Monday session kicks off short week with Friday closed in observance of Easter holiday.
  • Economic data includes Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 0830ET, New Home Sales at 1000ET, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 1030ET.
  • US Treasury supply resumes with $73B 13W, $70B 26W Bill auctions at 1130ET, $66B 2Y Note auction (91282CKH3) at 1300ET.
  • Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed Bostic kicks off with a moderated discussion at Univ of Cincinnati (0825ET), Chicago Fed Goolsbee on Yahoo Finance (0905ET), Fed Gov Cook on dual mandate, Harvard, text, Q&A (1030ET).
  • Projected rate cut pricing moderating vs. late Friday highs: May 2024 at -14.5% vs. -16.5% late Friday w/ cumulative -3.6bp at 5.291%; June 2024 -66.7% vs. -69.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -20.3bp at 5.125%. July'24 cumulative at -32.0bp vs. -33.5bp.
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