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Minor Pullback Doesn't Change Substantial Rally

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • EDs edge back a little further from session highs with Barkin’s comments, but still see greater than 0.20 increases in late red pack onwards (led by +0.25 in blues), a little over half of which has come since the ISM miss.
  • Yields are seen more decisively peaking in EDZ2 (4.675%) having been tied between Z2-H3 first thing and 2023 inversion builds with EDZ2/EDZ3 -35bps from -20bp at Friday’s close.
  • Despite the larger daily declines further out the curve, higher for longer messaging still wins out compared to Sep 21 FOMC levels: yields are 10-15bps lower in EDH3-U3 but 15bps higher from 2H25 onwards.
  • Barkin's comments: the post-pandemic era may spell more inflationary headwinds but it's premature to say that the US faces an era of more inflation and don't need to make any of these judgments now.


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  • EDs edge back a little further from session highs with Barkin’s comments, but still see greater than 0.20 increases in late red pack onwards (led by +0.25 in blues), a little over half of which has come since the ISM miss.
  • Yields are seen more decisively peaking in EDZ2 (4.675%) having been tied between Z2-H3 first thing and 2023 inversion builds with EDZ2/EDZ3 -35bps from -20bp at Friday’s close.
  • Despite the larger daily declines further out the curve, higher for longer messaging still wins out compared to Sep 21 FOMC levels: yields are 10-15bps lower in EDH3-U3 but 15bps higher from 2H25 onwards.
  • Barkin's comments: the post-pandemic era may spell more inflationary headwinds but it's premature to say that the US faces an era of more inflation and don't need to make any of these judgments now.