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Minutes: Breman: Monpol needs to be significantly contractionary

RIKSBANK
  • "Monetary policy needs to be significantly contractionary for a considerable period going forward for us to achieve low and stable inflation. Temporary policy rate hikes would only have minor effects on inflation. A policy rate path indicating that interest rates will soon be cut is associated with major risks. It could lead to the expected decline in inflation slowing down before we reach the target, or to inflation starting to rise again"
  • "It is not enough for inflation to start to decline. The inflation rate needs to fall from its currently high level back to the target of 2 per cent. Furthermore, inflation shall then remain at a low and stable level."
  • "I consider the risk outlook to be balanced in the near term, but the risk outlook for inflation in the medium term is on the upside."
  • "A continued trend depreciation of the krona can make monetary policy more difficult going forward. The combination of measures at today’s meeting aims to bring down inflation within a reasonable time. It may also help to avoid the krona depreciating even further compared to if we had just raised the policy rate. The krona is not in itself a target for monetary policy, but it is one of several variables that affect inflation."
  • "At our last meeting, I mentioned that a tapering of our asset holdings can lead to monetary policy being more contractionary than the policy rate implies. In contrast with the assessment I made then, the tapering of our holdings has not yet had a noticeably contractionary effect on financial conditions... Starting to sell government securities is therefore a complement to increasing the policy rate. "
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