Minutes: Delta Introduces High Uncertainty To Economy

The RBA's August meeting minutes note that "outbreaks of the Delta variant and accompanying lockdowns had introduced a high degree of uncertainty to the outlook for the second half of 2021. Members observed that economic activity and employment were expected to decline in the September quarter. The high transmissibility of the Delta variant raised the possibility that a more gradual reopening of the economy in affected areas would be needed compared with earlier episodes of lockdown restrictions. Under the assumption that further lengthy lockdowns would be limited, the economy was forecast to rebound from the current setback later in the year as restrictions are eased, consistent with the previously observed pattern in Australia and overseas."

• "Members noted that the prospects for recovery beyond the effects of the recent virus outbreaks are supported by a number of factors. These include the underlying momentum in the economy and strengthened balance sheets prior to the recent virus outbreaks, the substantial fiscal support offered to households and businesses in areas affected by lockdowns, progress with the vaccination rollout and the ability of the economy to adapt. In the meantime, health outcomes would continue to present the main source of uncertainty for the economic outlook."