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Minutes due at 8:30GMT / 9:30CET

RIKSBANK
  • The Minutes of the Riksbank's February meeting will be published at 8:30GMT / 9:30CET.
  • The meeting was a hawkish surprise to markets and saw EURSEK have its second biggest down day since 2009 with the policy rate path raised more than expected (to include a 30% probability of a 50bp hike in April by our calculations). The Executive Board also voted to start active government bond sales from April noting the weak krona as one of the motivating factors.
  • We have already seen an upside surprise to the Riksbank's inflation forecasts with this morning's CPIF print and we will therefore be looking carefully for any hints of how much of an upside surprise to inflation data (or SEK weakness) Executive Board members need to see to look for a 50bp hike.
  • Ahead of today's inflation data markets had been pricing around 45bp for the April meeting and a further 15bp by June (the Riksbank's rate proflile is flat after April), and that pricing will have increased further following this morning's higher-than-expected print.
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