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Minutes Preview: Looking Beyond The Summer

FED

A few things to watch for in today's release of May's FOMC minutes (1400ET):

  • What lies beyond the summer: Forward guidance from participants has basically been unanimous since the May meeting for 50bp hikes in June + July (and markets have closely adhered to that). So the main focus in the minutes will be on what developments would spur participants to back a slower/faster pace of hikes from September onward.
  • Anyone for more? Despite the unanimous vote in favor of a 50bp raise in May, it's possible there was discussion about a 75bp hike (BMO FICC sees potential risk of headlines re members advocating 75bp or even 100bp).
  • Endgame: Also on rates, watch for any discussion on where the terminal rate is seen - and how much talk there was of needing to move beyond neutral.
  • Risks: Any discussion of recession risks / wage-price spiral potential / tighter financial conditions will be closely watched.
  • QT clues: May's decision to begin asset runoff was well-telegraphed, but the minutes may offer some insight esp around the runoff pace decision and any sense of how far they will shrink the balance sheet/final level of reserves. FOMC members have been vague about the timing of MBS sales, but perhaps the minutes can shed some light.
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A few things to watch for in today's release of May's FOMC minutes (1400ET):

  • What lies beyond the summer: Forward guidance from participants has basically been unanimous since the May meeting for 50bp hikes in June + July (and markets have closely adhered to that). So the main focus in the minutes will be on what developments would spur participants to back a slower/faster pace of hikes from September onward.
  • Anyone for more? Despite the unanimous vote in favor of a 50bp raise in May, it's possible there was discussion about a 75bp hike (BMO FICC sees potential risk of headlines re members advocating 75bp or even 100bp).
  • Endgame: Also on rates, watch for any discussion on where the terminal rate is seen - and how much talk there was of needing to move beyond neutral.
  • Risks: Any discussion of recession risks / wage-price spiral potential / tighter financial conditions will be closely watched.
  • QT clues: May's decision to begin asset runoff was well-telegraphed, but the minutes may offer some insight esp around the runoff pace decision and any sense of how far they will shrink the balance sheet/final level of reserves. FOMC members have been vague about the timing of MBS sales, but perhaps the minutes can shed some light.