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Minutes: Slightly more hawkish but inflation remains key beyond Sep

RIKSBANK
  • The overall tone of the Minutes had few surprises in our view, but probably leaned slightly more hawkishly than the statement and the MPR released on 29 June.
  • All members seemed very on board with another hike in September - that's not really new - but 4/5 members pointed to upside risks in a way that the 20% probability of a hike beyond then in the forecasts didn't really emphasize so much. Every member of the Riksbank seems to be very data driven at present and the inflation prints ahead of the next meeting will be key.
  • There was more discussion on SEK and how the weakness had surprised, whether the passthrough to inflation would be larger than the models for the main forecast would suggest.
  • One thing that we would note is that the more dovish bias from the prior meeting from Breman and Floden seems to have dissipated (although they still remain opposed to larger than 25bp hikes). It now seems to us as though Bunge is the most dovish member after she noted that risks to inflation were relatively balanced - whereas most other members saw them to the upside.
  • There was no real new information regarding the increased QT pace.
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